Profiles of States as Fuzzy Sets: Methodological Refinement of Lateral Pressure Theory

One of the most serious challenges in international relations pertains to the theory and measurement of transformation and change. This paper proposes, and then develops a conceptual and methodological extension in the measurement of change within and across states as postulated by lateral pressure theory. It argues, and shows, that by conceptualizing the profiles of states identified by lateral pressure theory using fuzzy logic, we can systematically and precisely locate and track relative changes in the distribution of states within and across profile spaces, across geographical regions, as well as over time. This may be an important step towards identifying and possibly anticipating changes in the configuration of states, including conflict-prone constellations, before they escalate into conflict or war. It may also improve our understanding of those regions of the world and help articulate the implications of significant geopolitical changes as they occur.